Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release, a quick update on used vehicle inflation—comparing our numbers to the Mannheim Used Vehicle Value Index—and a first look at shelter inflation.

Used vehicle prices rose NSA, fell SA

Dotdat’s retail Used Vehicle CPI looked a lot like the wholesale Mannheim Used Vehicle Value Index over April.

In both, prices were up, but not as much as they normally would be, so for general price level calculations, we assume they were down—i.e. used vehicle prices rose on a non-adjusted basis over the month but fell after accounting for this year’s comparatively tepid market.

The Mannheim index rose 2.9 percent in April and after accounting for seasonality fell 1 percent. Dotdat’s Used Vehicle CPI rose 0.29 percent and after accounting for seasonality fell 1.3 percent.

Real-time data track shifts in price momentum over the course of a month, one of its advantages. In this sense, Dotdat’s -1.3 percent March print with downward momentum in its Used Vehicle CPI for looks very different from April’s identical print but with a positive trend into May. If we assume price determination is a fluid and ongoing process—reflecting our propensity to ‘truck, barter and exchange’— one print a month seems like a pretty sparse capture of a much richer data-generating process.

Shelter inflation, a first look

Dotdat’s real-time Shelter inflation uses asking rents for vacant apartments and houses to build a simple measure of Shelter inflation that includes both the ‘Rent of primary residence’ and ‘Owners equivalent rent’ categories. Over the past few months its rolling monthly inflation rate has been steady in the mid 40s.