Dotdat’s headline real-time CPI was flat in July, as we posted yesterday, in line with the 0.0 percent July print for the headline CPI-U, and below the Bloomberg consensus of 0.2 percent.
A marked deceleration of 1.8 percent in our real-time Transport CPI drove the decline, and matched July’s BLS print of -2.1 percent fairly well, as did our Gasoline, Used Car, and Auto Insurance CPIs.
Dotdat’s real-time Gasoline CPI was down 7.5 percent in July compared with a 7.7 percent decline in the CPI-U.
Our biggest miss was in Apparel, where the official data show a very different trend than the real-time data. We’re going to dig into this.
In Housing, while the real-time data correctly captured the acceleration in Household Furnishings CPIs (which was consistent with the movement in our Apparel CPI) our Shelter CPI continued to accelerate, while the official print started to turn over.
The decelerations we’ve seen over the past few months in other real-time CPIs dominated by services, including Medical Care, Other, and Education/Communication, have started to show up in the official data, apparently with about a six-week lag. (We’ll need more data points from the BLS to fully verify these relationships).
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